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Examining the Role of Maoists in the New Political Experiment in Nepal By Padmaja Murthy
Nepal, a country with a population of over 30 million has more than 100 ethnic/caste groups and over 93 languages. The period of Maoist insurgency has not only decisively changed the political discourse of Nepal but also politicized the multi-ethnic society at large. The political experiment in Nepal has now developed its own dynamics which was not factored in earlier. The Maoists now have to share space with ethnic groups. These ethnic/ caste groups are assertive and take tough stand in negotiations with the government. They strongly believe that unless they have enough representatives elected in the constituent assembly, their political space will not be guaranteed which in turn will determine their economic and social space. Like the Maoists these groups too have adopted violent means to put forward their demands. The journey to conflict resolution is therefore all the more difficult, complex, violent and also crowded. The new political experiment of Nepal can only succeed if law and order is restored before conducting elections to the constituent assembly. Even if the constituent assembly elections are successfully held the process of framing a new constitution will not be an easy process. Elected representatives of various groups will play tough to get the maximum benefits for their respective constituencies. All these need not be looked upon as negative process altogether. A society and people, who have been socially and politically marginalized for a long time will go through these difficult phases till they reach an understanding which reasonably satisfies all.
Maoist Warfare Strategy Paul Soren
is interesting to note that the Nepali Maoists started their People’s War with great enthusiasm, but, over a period of time, realised that they will not be able to win the war militarily. At times, they tried to negotiate a peace deal with the government, in order to strengthen themselves rather than making a peace deal. But after a decade of violent confrontation with the state, the Maoists understood the situation and accepted multiparty democracy and joined mainstream politics, and subsequently joined the interim government. The Maoists believe that as long as the peace process maintains momentum it will allow them to achieve their goals. By joining mainstream politics the Maoists believe that they can achieve their objectives of a democratic republic through the constituent assembly polls. As a result, after joining the government, they have been pressurising Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala to announce a republic. The Maoists are making tactical moves and are playing their cards well. Senior Maoist leaders are reiterating their demand, to declare Nepal, a republic. Gauging the present political environment, Maoist chairman Prachanda’s announcement to form a possible Left front to contest assembly elections has also received wider acceptance from all other Left parties of Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) has come out openly supporting Maoists demand for a republic. This indicates that a new political polarisation is shaping up, and this equation will make difference in the days ahead.
State Restructuring and Accommodating Madhesi Aspirations in Nepal Dr. PG Rajamohan
The end of a decade long ‘People’s War’ by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and their successful inclusion in the government has safely brought the country out of the bloody insrugency. After the success of Jana Andolan II (People’s Movement II) staged by the democratic forces of Nepal along with the support of the Maoists, one of the major issue of the country i.e., the restructuring of the state has come to the fore more prominently. Although, all political forces and stake holders in the country have theoretically agreed for state restructuring and forming federal structure of the government in place of the present unitary system, they still appear confused over the type of suitable model to Nepal’s unique situation. This article would discuss about the key issues concerned to the state restructuring, proposed federal political system and the recent unrelenting problems prevalent in the Terai region.
Arms Management in Nepal: The Role of UN Nihar Nayak
With the 62 political parties registered before thee Election Commission to participate in the elections, the UNMIN is going to face serious challenges in Nepal as the CA elections get closer. The Terai plains have been the breeding ground of ethnic armed groups, with at least nine factions raising the banner of revolt and making peace remain still a distant dream. Lack of trust between the Maoists and political parties, activities of the YCL and other armed groups, demands of the minority groups and discrepancy in the Maoists declared arms could derail the peace process in Nepal. A lack of comprehensive strategy for the management of arms during the peace process will reduce the efficacy of ongoing peace process and diminish the prospects of long term stability. The disarmament of the newly armed groups is not part of the CPA. The peace accord needs to evaluate the ramification of their future role. They are without doubt a grave menace to the law and order situation. They can also play a disrupting effect during the election to the CA. The IG should take action against the armed groups. It is the responsibility of the eight political parties to first control their front organisations. It would be easy for the law enforcing agencies to take firm actions against the newly formed armed groups in the Terai region.
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India’s Relations With New Nepal: Are We Ready For A Shift? Smruti S Pattanaik
India’s approach to the developments in Nepal saw a significant shift after King restored the Parliament. India announced aid package for the reconstruction of Nepal after the alliance of seven political parties assumed power last year. The current Indian policy seems it indicate that it has factored the Maoists as legitimate political actors in Nepal. Officially, India is supportive of the political initiatives in Nepal and has provided various economic grants but it does not want to be involved directly in the political restructuring in the Kingdom… India is still one of the most important countries and its continuous political support is crucial. It is not surprising while addressing academicians, security analysts and policy makers in New Delhi in November 2006 the Maoist supreme Prachanda said “we want to work with India because from whichever angle we see, whether historical, cultural, linguistic or geo-political, without getting involved with India in a serious interaction, the formation of new Nepal is difficult and we realize that”. The Maoists after joining the interim government has given enough political signals that they would like to build friendly relations with India to address the apprehensions expressed regarding their linkage with the Indian Maoists. It needs to be emphasised that Maoists involvement in Nepali politics will have crucial implication for the Indian Maoists and perhaps would give them some lessons regarding the need to be part of the political mainstream. There still remains apprehension regarding India’s stand on Monarchy due to their long association. For example in recent violence in Terai, the Maoists accused elements in India for instigating violence to help revive the Monarchy in Nepal.
Comrades in ‘Arms’: India-Nepal Maoists Ties Dr. P V Ramana
The Indian Maoists and their Nepalese counterparts have had a variety of linkages between them: fraternal ties and exchange of delegates, exchange of men and material, participation in fraternal multilateral fora, etc. However, they have a disagreement on the course adopted by the Nepalese Maoists. But, this had no impact on their mutual ties, and both continue to be members of CCOMPOSA. At the same time, they are also engaged in a continuous and ongoing debate on a range of issues, including the ‘direction’ of the Maoist movement. Thus, noting can be more inaccurate than to think that they had either parted ranks, or would do so in the future. At the same time, it is difficult to conclusively state at this point in time about the nature and ties and exchanges they would have in the months and years to come.
Chinese Perception of Developments in Nepal Dr. Abanti Bhattacharya From the immediate perspective, China’s Nepal policy is linked crucially to its overall South Asia policy. China’s South Asia policy has two broad aspects. First, India constitutes the primary element in China’s South Asia policy not only because it is yet another rising Asian power but also that China has intractable border dispute. Corollary to it is the fact that China seeks to maintain a fine balance between India and Pakistan which would not only enable it to preserve a stable environment in its southern backyard, but also facilitate it to restrict India’s rise to a great power status. In fact, according to some analysts China is not in a hurry to solve the border dispute with India primarily because it does not want to lose its Pakistan card against India. The Pakistan factor would essentially tie down India to the South Asian region. At the same time, China is careful not to antagonise India to the extent that it gangs up with the US against China. The second aspect of China’s South Asia policy is to maintain cordial relations with all the South Asian countries. This would enable China to isolate and marginalise India’s influence over the region. In fact, friendship with China is also seen by the smaller South Asian nations to be beneficial as it gives them bargaining power vis-a-vis New Delhi. Among the important determinants that guide China’s South Asia policy is the Tibetan factor, which has significant geopolitical and economic ramifications for the region in general, and Nepal in particular. Economic development in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is seen important for the development of other regional economies and in this respect Nepal is particular has been demanding for more road linkages with the TAR in order to benefit from the trade and commerce of the region. Politically, the Tibet factor is of little significance for the Nepalese government as Nepal has about 35,000 Tibetans whose political activity is ominously regarded as an example of anti-China activity in the Nepalese soil. Therefore, the Nepalese government confront the Chinese pressure concerning the treatment of Tibetans in Nepal. China reached an agreement with King Gyanendra in August 2002 to cease any ‘anti-China activities’ in Nepal. Also, in January 2005 on China’s insistence Nepal closed down the Tibetan Refugee Welfare Office in Kathmandu. The other determinant that influences China’s South Asia policy is the location of Nepal between the two Asian giants, which has not only complicated Nepal’s handling of its own foreign policy objectives vis-ŕ-vis India and China but also has exacerbated complications in the region by factoring in Nepal in the Sino-Indian relations. In fact, the geographical location of Nepal has enhanced its strategic importance and enabled it to exploit the Sino-Indian rift in its favour and play the two giants against each other.1 This fact is best corroborated by reports of China’s clandestine supply of arms to Nepal when India froze military assistance to the Royal Nepalese Army in the wake up of the royal coup in 2005.
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