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Recent Developments in the Gulf Region: An Overview A K Pasha The US policy in the Gulf region, marked by confusion and lack of wisdom, is a part of the problem and not part of the solution. With its huge direct military presence in the Gulf region and at the same time acting as the guarantor of Israeli security, it has become embarrassing for Arab allies of US to see two Arab countries occupied. Even as US mobilised Arab support against Iran, IAEA said Iran’s ties with it have entered a new phase and Iran has made some “breakthrough in [resolving] its nuclear program”. Due to its policy in the region, the US stands accused of fomenting wars leading to instability and insecurity. US-Israeli policies of invasions, assassinations, bombings, massacres, torture are creating fertile ground for extremism and growth of religious groups and terrorism. There is an urgent need to save the region from more suicide attacks, bloodshed and destruction. India’s interests have to some degree been affected by wars, revolutions, instability, and terrorism in this volatile but strategically important Gulf region.
India and Developments in the Persian Gulf Region Anwar Alam
Any student of international relations will notice that 9/11 impacted the Persian Gulf region far greater than any other parts of the world. In concrete terms this pertains broadly to the institutionalisation of American military hegemony in the region leading to the invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iranian nuclear controversy, political and economic reforms in the region and Islamic extremism that continues to pose a threat to security and stability of the region and the regimes there. Though the US started made its military presence felt in the Gulf region since early 90s (Gulf War, 1991), it decisively moved in that direction during second Iraq War in 2003. The Americanisation of the Gulf Region, except Iran, is being clearly reflected in terms of evolving Gulf security structure and updating of defence related agreements between Gulf countries and the US. How these developments affected the Indian Muslims needs to be understood. This paper examines the developments of the past 6 years in the Persian Gulf region and how these developments have influenced the Indian policy makers were examined.
Saudi-India Ties – Looking back to think ahead N. Janardhan
While King Abdullah’s visit to India in January 2006 was an endorsement of Saudi new ‘Look East’ policy, India appears to be still stuck in its ‘Look West’ mould. While Chinese President Hu Jintao reciprocated the Saudi head of state’s visit within fours months, and even made a brief stopover in the UAE on his way to Africa in January, Indian leaders are all over the world except in its ‘neighborhood’. It is natural that increasing economic ties will impact the political and security dynamics too. But by suggesting that it is willing to play a proactive role by sharing its experience in combating terrorism, maritime security and military training, New Delhi may also be indicating just how far it is willing to go, which, in fact, is not far enough for the long-term security concerns of the Gulf countries. Other pertinent questions would be if India is really willing and capable of playing a role in the hard security realm, and more crucially, what role the US will play in encouraging or discouraging Saudi-India security ties.
Dissent and Human Rights Situations in GCC States Sima Baidya
Long back in 1981 Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights was prepared. In case of Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights only terms of reference are Qur’an and Hadith. This detailed text of human rights elaborately covers many aspects of human lives and obviously every thing needs to be in conformity with Islamic values. In columns XIV, it talks about right to establish institutions but connecting it to “enjoin what is right (ma’roof) and to prevent what is wrong (munkar). So, most likely even if some documents like in columns XII (c) under right to freedom of belief, thought and speech says “it is the right and duty of every Muslim to protest and strive (within the limits set out by the law) against oppression even if it involves challenging the highest authority in the state. In other words, it might clearly state or accept the right to dissent as human rights but within the ambit of law. To be more specific to quote ‘within the limits set out by the law’ makes every thing redundant. Many barriers stand tall to accommodate dissent in GCC countries. To improve human rights conditions in the region, protection of people’s right should get foremost priority. For GCC states, it is a distant dream to achieve.
Democracy in GCC States: Challenges and Prospects G Kheghoto Sema Since the 1990s, the GCC States have significantly emerged with some political reforms establishing limited parliaments and regular elections (as in the case of Kuwait and Bahrain). Qatar and Oman have recently experienced national elections and municipal elections in Saudi Arabia. UAE too is set to have indirect elections for half of the members to 40 Federal National Council. With the exception in Bahrain, rest of the GCC States does not have legal political parties. In the absence of legal recognition, various political groups contest elections to local and national councils on individual level. Majority of the GCC States have accorded women’s right to vote and contest elections. The only exception is Saudi Arabia allowing women only in Syndicate Board elections. The traditional patriarchal system still plays a crucial role in determining the participation of women in Gulf society. Nevertheless, Kuwaiti women enjoy much better opportunities almost on equal level with men. Notwithstanding these limited reforms, human rights record is still dismal in the Gulf States in the spheres of sectarian discriminatory policies, suppression of dissents and oppositions, curb on information flow and civil society organizations, and partial treatments towards women (especially in Saudi Arabia). The parliaments are yet to emerge as full fledged legislative bodies with sufficient powers under the constitutional rule of law. This would also mean independent political institutions among executive, legislature and judiciary with impartial mechanism to safeguard the autonomy of each branch of the government. It will be in the greater interest of the Gulf monarchies to pursue legitimacy from their citizens rather than depending on the US for security. The regimes’ tactical move for limited political participation while deriving legitimacy from external force only creates mutual suspicions between the rulers and the citizens. The US military intervention in the region has done more harm to its image and its credibility in promoting democracy under cloud... among the population across the Arab world. The state repressive measures and perceived failed autocratic regimes coupled with its close ties with the US has also led to emergence of militant Islamist groups that seek to establish alternative political system. In the face of numerous issues waiting to be resolved and various conflicting actors in Gulf politics encompassing external interests down to domestic aspirations, the present political system in Gulf is limited to liberalisation rendering ambiguous space towards “sustainable democracy”.
India’s Growing Economic Partnership with GCC States SR Pradhan The relationship between India and GCC states has been in focus in the evolving interdependence centering on energy-economy dynamics and changed geopolitical environment in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The ‘Look East’ strategy of the GCC provides an impetus for closer relations. It is therefore necessary that since a sustainable relationship entails multifaceted cooperation, India and the GCC countries should broaden relations on the strategic and political levels. It is in the interests of both the GCC and India to recognise the other’s potential as a serious trading partner, and further strengthen their relations. Both parties could nurture their relations in a constructive way by finding the right balance between regionalism and multilateralism to excel in today’s fast paced economic era.
Gulf Labor Market In Transition: Implications for India Girijesh Pant The labour market in the GCC countries is passing through a defining phase. It has evolved over the last three decades and could be described in its third phase. The first phase was from 1975 to 1985. These were years of oil boom high growth rate and economic expansion. These were the days when the demand for labour exceeded the local supplies leading to unique situation where foreign workers in all categories of jobs became the major employees. In some of the countries the expatriates exceeded the local population. The second phase began primarily due to the decline in oil revenue between 1985-95 characterised by shrinking economy and limited job opportunities. The third phase since 1995, is the period when the baby boom of the early seventies started becoming visible in terms of youth bulge.Given the demographic pressure and the limitation of the rentier state in nation building project particularly in the context of globalisation, the labour market in the region has little choice but to undergo tough reform process. Clearly this is not exclusively an economic issue, it has its own politics and social ramifications as well. During last three decades, the population of the Gulf countries has increased in number and has undergone change in terms of dependency ratio and age structure.
U.S. Iran Stand Off and its Impact on India Priya Ranjan Kumar Geographically, the Gulf is India’s extended neighborhood and the only link with the no-less vital Central Asia. With Pakistan denying India its transit rights and Afghanistan having sunk into chaos, Indo-Gulf relations assume special significance. Historically speaking, the strategic relationship between Indian-subcontinent and Gulf goes back to ancient, pre-Islamic days. Britain during its Colonial regime controlled the Gulf tightly because of its overwhelming strategic importance for the defense of India, the brightest jewel in the crown. Remarkably, this control was exercised not from London but from Calcutta (now Kolkata) first, and then, Bombay and New Delhi after 1911. The post 9/11 world scenario appears to have been telling us the story altogether in a different direction. Despite significant convergence of interests between India and the US on several issues, India depends largely on Iran and the Gulf for a variety of issues such as, energy supplies, workers, trade and security. India wil have to balance its relationship between the old and new friends.
Rising Oil Prices and US Response Sreedhar With crude oil prices reaching an all time high of US $ 100 for a short while in the beginning of 2008 sent alarm bells among the consuming countries across the globe. This gradual increase in oil prices from 2005 onwards has substantially affecting the geo politics. The new financial clout of the oil producing countries is changing the global order in a subtle way without any overt confrontation. The US and its allies response to this development is greater militarization by stationing troops in the entire Persian Gulf. The initial reports from the international market indicate that the coercive diplomacy appears to have paid some dividends. |
