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Future of Pakistan- Emerging Trends Vinod Anand
President Musharraf had merged the office of President, Chief of Army Staff and the head of government into one unified entity; in fact he was the sole power centre and had the ability to sack the Prime Minister at will. With the emergence of three power centers now there are bound to be contests and fracas between the so called power troika. Political situation in Pakistan remains fragile with Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif) (PML-N) having failed to reach a consensus on the restoration of judiciary. Restoration of judiciary with the objective of further dilution of powers of the President was part of the election manifesto of PML (N). Meanwhile President Musharraf while standing ostensibly on the sidelines has been attempting to (through deft maoeuvering) bring in a coalition more amenable to his brand of politics.
Pakistan Economy: Towards inevitable crisis Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury
Pakistan’s newly elected democratic government has claimed that the Musharraf regime presented false figures about the economy and created mess on the economic. during the last eight years. The PPP-led government says that those who claim to have broken the begging bowl have actually enlarged it. Today’s Pakistan’s economic situation is so alarming that the government had to revise downward all macro-economic projections, including GDP growth target from 7.2 per cent to six per cent, fiscal deficit target surged from 4.5 per cent of GDP to over six per cent The mismanagement of economy has resulted in overspending of Rs 558 billion and if the government does not take corrective measures then fiscal deficit will touch 9.5 per cent of GDP by June 2008. The PPP-PML (N) government has also said that the caretaker government was also responsible for this mess, as they too took no step to control the situation. Instead, they hiked POL prices and power tariff. Over 73.6 per cent population lived below poverty line, according to two dollar a day definition. The Musharraf government had predicted an annual growth rate of seven per cent for the current fiscal year but the actual number may come in below six per cent.
Challenges to Pakistan Economy Manish Sharma
Economic emancipation and political stability are the most important requirement for positive change in the country’s perception. The leaders of the country have great responsibility to work through the serious crisis that the Pakistan economy is facing at the present juncture. Confrontational attitude must give place to cooperation so that democracy gets a chance to flourish. The serious challenges before the national economy are on some basic levels such as wide budget and trade deficits, energy crisis, galloping inflation, food insecurity and need for liquidity for investment. Debt management is of great importance while considering lending from the IFIs. Freedom of democratic decision depends upon proper debt/GDP ratio as an unacceptable limit would harm the economic initiatives and hurt political representation. Pakistan’s credit rating which is of vital importance for investment and growth is based on developing progressive indicators of economy and continuous political stability. It is observed seriously by investors that in the times to come there are possibilities of emergence of a stable, cohesive and effective physical environment needed to tackle macro-economic imbalances. To improve the confidence of the people and build positive environment for investment, short, medium and long term policies should be introduced to overcome price hike of essential commodities and create more avenues for employment.
Pakistan: A tryst with the Future Pinaki Bhattacharya
SAARC will be able to bridge the trust deficit that exists between India and other South Asian countries, especially Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. A discussion on contentious issues in a regional forum often allows the much needed outlet that otherwise is not possible in either bilateral interactions - where often stated positions get repeated; or multilateral forum where the threat of an external imposition always exists. SAARC summits at times have been known to be great icebreakers at times when bilateral relations seem to have come unstuck in some cases. The ‘pressure valve’ role of SAARC must be formalized rather than remain an ad hoc one. India will definitely have to show greater openness and resolve in opting for the regional option as the bigger and more responsible actor in regional cooperation as it is often at the center of controversy in many of the vexed South Asian issues. While SAARC may not become a problem solving platform as some of the problems in the subcontinent are endemic, rooted in deeper history and ideology, it can nevertheless become a starting point of key confidence building measures across the region. As the interests of external powers (China and US) especially after the entry of Afghanistan in the grouping grows, internal coherence within SAARC will be of paramount importance.
Pakistan and SAARC: A Quest for Pragmatism in the New World Order Mohor Chakraborty
Nawaz Sharif wanted a complete repudiation of the Parvez Musharraf regime in one big sweep – through a process of executive action. He believed that the restitution of the Supreme Court judges – unseated by Musharraf – would turn the tables. He was parachuted from Saudi Arabia just before the elections. He had been in exile there since 1999.
US-Pakistan Relations: Between Estrangement and Engagement Seema
The US embarked upon its engagement of Pakistan during the Cold War, when Pakistan, a new independent state that had broken off from its large domineering neighbour, India was insecure, considering India’s superior military strength. The US, trying to build an alliance against the USSR, found a complying ally in Pakistan, which was also looking for ways to speeden its economic development. The US provided large amount of funds under various economic development schemes to Pakistan and also strengthened its defence capabilities, through several arms transfer agreements. In the process the US supported military governments in Pakistan by its recognition to them and dealing with them; thus providing legitimacy to these governments at the international level. Any movement for democracy was therefore weakened as the ruling establishments already had international credibility. A right-wing, conservative Islamist base also emerged that supported military rule and close ties with the US.
Civil Society in Pakistan: A new force and factor in democracy Anil Kumar Mohapatra
During last six decades of its existence Pakistan has experienced several offs and on with democracy. Each attempt to establish democracy has been yielded to military intervention (coup) for which democracy remains still an elusive dream and a hard fact to be realized in Pakistan. Besides military taken over for four times, to script a switchover to democracy has been a very difficult task in presence of the prevailing conditions there punctuated by a waning political culture and the expanding grip of ethnic violence and terror. However the recent democratic upsurge that has brought an end to Musharraf’s military dictatorship carries a substantial promise in it. The present process of transition has witnessed the advent of a key actor on the stage i.e. the Civil Society. That has emerged as a new force in Pakistan. It has lent its support in the restoration of multi-party democracy in February 2008. In today’s Pakistan therefore Civil Society is a much talked and referred term. With the weakening and ineffectiveness of state apparatus gradually people have started relying on them in solving their own problems and assertion of their rights through these non-state organizations. These organizations are now very active. People are getting aware of political happenings and are thinking of asserting their role through them. With the insistence of the civil society organizations some unprecedented developments like restoration of the Constitution, establishment of rule of law and the independence of judiciary and conduct of parliamentary elections after six years and above all weakening of the grip of Musharraf on Pakistan polity - have taken place in Pakistan. In this background the success of democratic switch over and its sustenance depends much on the civil society. How does it respond to the prevailing situation is a matter that counts. Pakistan being a transitional democracy, the ideal conditions of a civil society are not yet achieved but a marked shift has occurred. Civil Society in Pakistan is gaining new momentum today .Despite its commendable initiative in November, 2007 the current situation of conflict and political degeneration in Pakistan calls for soul- searching and introspection on the part of both civil and political society in giving shape to a changed Pakistan.
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