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The Taliban’s shifting theatre of war, ranging from the North-West Frontier Province to the more hospitable terrain of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, is worrying its creator Pakistan, which does not want to be surrounded by the Taliban on all sides. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) still believes it can control the force it created, a perception that no longer holds credibility. The US wants to end the terror operations of the Afghan Taliban, headed by Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, and the Pakistani Taliban who attacked the Police Academy in Lahore. It remains to be seen if General Ashfaq Kayani uses the Taliban or they use him. The British once ventured into this region—during the British-Afghan wars—and were badly hit with heavy casualties. They did not venture here again until they ruled the sub-continent. Farmers growing opium in a region with no infrastructure whatsoever cannot be asked to stop production with no alternative to turn to. They should be offered generous subsidies to grow alternate cash crops; subsidies have worked well in the US, India and European Union. Economic growth would be a long term solution encouraging the people of the region to give up the gun culture of generations past and present. The loss of the Swat Valley and now Buner District, 110 km from Islamabad, makes it clear that the well armed adversary is operating locally, even from local mosques. The Pakistani establishment believes that the Taliban edging closer to Islamabad gives it a potent lever to ask the US for more grants. It remains to be seen who has the last laugh. Sooner or later, the Pakistani army will have to act to save Punjab and Sindh. In the language of Western corporates, Pakistan is ripe for Taliban takeover, with the right nuclear assets. Pakistan must immediately deal with the scourges of terrorism and militancy that threaten its very existence. So grave is the threat that the US President has invited Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai to Washington for talks to work out a common strategy to deal with the Al Qaeda and Taliban. The local, regional and global repercussions of a failing Pakistan are too grave to be allowed to become reality. New Delhi G. Kishore Babu March 2009 Editor

Trends in Pakistan: An Uncertain Future

Vinod Anand and Dr. Narendra K. Tripathi

The biggest sign of Pakistan failing is the country being unable to counter its downward spiral on its own, as evidenced by its complicity in the Islamisation of the Pakistani society. Can the rising spectre of Islamic fundamentalism be appropriately dealt with through ad-hoc injunctions and monetary inducements? A more comprehensive strategy is urgently needed. Past evidence suggests that more aid to the Pakistani military would most likely be used to fight India, which would run contrary to the avowed purpose of fighting insurgents, militants or the Taliban. The long term trend of the Pakistani establishment doing very little to address the real problems of radicalisation and terrorism and treating them as mere nuisances compared to the perceived threat from India is likely to continue. In the worst case scenario as painted by largely Western media from their point of view, the Taliban will take over Pakistan. This would essentially mean Pakistan transgressing from a soft Islamic state to a hard Islamic state with a number of sectarian groups fighting each other. How can the international community help Pakistan make a course correction? The most important aspect of the intervention in both Pakistan and Afghanistan would be maintaining equilibrium in state-society relations.

Pakistan and the Region: Prescription for Peace

– Romesh Bhandari

The attack in Mumbai followed by the attack on the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team and now the attack on the Police Academy in Lahore have suddenly awakened Pakistani society and establishments to the fact that the snake they had nurtured to wage a proxy war against India can bite them even more grievously. Peace with India seems to have become a national necessity. We have now reached a stage at which the matter is no longer confined to resolving problems between India and Pakistan or Pakistan and Afghanistan. Rather, all the three are interlinked and outside powers are also involved. It is thus a multilateral matter necessitating a collective plan and strategy. In addressing this situation, it is necessary to identify our goals so that we can deal with the matter in a comprehensive, constructive and cooperative manner. First and foremost are the Taliban and Al Qaeda, who are responsible for the majority of the terrorist acts. Secondly, it must be ensured that Pakistan remains united, has a firmly entrenched Democracy and can address the problems of development and welfare of the public, particularly the poor and deprived. Democracy can only take firm root if the armed forces take secondary position and confine themselves to carrying out their professional role. Thirdly, Indo-Pakistan relations have to put on an even keel. Fourthly, comes the question of nuclear weapons. Finally, bringing about normalcy in Afghanistan is critical.

Perspectives on Obama’s New Af Pak Strategy

Vishal Chandra

It may be said that the Obama administration has articulated what the previous US administration either could not or simply did not want to articulate, for instance, the idea of engaging the so-called reconcilable Taliban and an exit strategy from Afghanistan.

However, unlike the earlier administration, Obama’s strategy for now appears low on rhetoric and high on result or performance-oriented approach especially towards Pakistan. . The whole idea of extracting huge Western aid, whether civilian or military and retaining Pakistan’s centrality in the geo-political interests of the US in south-central Asia region has been there since the days of anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan.

Some Indian analysts have alluded to a possible US pressure on India to ‘normalise’ its relations with Pakistan by resuming the composite dialogue so that the Pakistan armed forces could concentrate on its western frontiers.

Pakistan’s Descent into Chaos

– Anil Kamboj

Pakistan is under siege from within. The earlier defective policy of the West has brought the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban into closer alliance and strengthened the links between the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Punjabi terrorist groups. Neither civil society nor political parties in Pakistan have the ability, or will, to take on the radicals. All indications point to civil society across Pakistan gradually adjusting to the reality of the country’s increasing radicalisation. Little wonder then that prominent security experts have sounded dire warnings that our neighbour could well become a failed state soon. India must remain very alert on its Western borders. If Pakistan is unable to deal with the issue of militancy, the threats to India could multiply manifold. We must thoroughly review our approach to internal security. More importantly, we need a clear political consensus that the impact of developments across the border will not be allowed to erode communal harmony in the country.

PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK

– Kalim Bahadur

Today, Pakistani society is awash with fears of Taliban takeover, civil war, military coup and economic collapse. The writ of the state is gradually narrowing with every passing day. The political stability so desperately needed to deal with terrorism, which threatens the very existence of the country, has eluded Pakistan because successive rulers have mutilated the Constitution to the extent that it is no longer clear whether the parliamentary or presidential form of government prevails in the country. The extremist propaganda that Pakistan has three enemies i.e. Hindus, Jews and Christians represented by India, Israel and the United States has been consistently dinning in the ears of the people. There is a real possibility of the Taliban infiltrating and seizing important institutions and making a bid to capture power with the help of sympathetic units in the armed forces. The political class of the country appears to have no clue about how to meet the threat to Pakistan’s existence

Staring Down into the Abyss

Pinaki Bhattacharya

Pakistan’s army is facing its biggest test yet in tackling Islamist militancy and terrorism within its own national precincts. For an army that was not configured to counter large scale insurgency, having been trained instead to take on a single enemy, India, this is a test of mettle. Without a doubt, unless the armed forces desire change, Pakistan will progressively sink into the morass of Islamist militancy and terrorism, endangering its viability as a nation-state. Reform of the ISI will be the lodestone on which the Pakistani military’s desire for reforms will be tested. The military must decide whether the long term interests of the country lie in a Talibanised Pakistan that is isolated in the world and far removed from the global mainstream of development. The military should reconsider whether its obsession with India has yielded dividends in terms of nation building and strategic expansion. The army would do well to put some distance between itself and the political platforms of parties or even the ruling ethos of the administration. At the systemic level, the military would have to step back from looking over the shoulder of the civil administration in areas like criminal investigation and judiciary. Gen. Kayani’s actions during this phase herald a marked change in the attitude of the country’s army.

Managing Indo-Pak Borders

– S. K. Sood

The major problem of Indo-Pak border management is the myopic view and general perception that it is the responsibility of the BSF alone and that border security is the be all and end all of border management. This attitude is slowly changing, as reflected by the creation of a separate Department of Border Management in the GOI. The quality of border management can be improved with the economic development of border areas and through the coordinated efforts of all stakeholders. The Government should harness the unique position of the BSF as its sole visible instrument in remote far-flung areas to identify the problems of border populations and initiate programs and projects for their overall economic development. Focussed development of the border area is essential to make adequate employment opportunities and economic avenues available to border populations so that they do not fall prey to the designs of criminals and anti-national elements.

Pakistan: A State on the Verge of Collapse

– Kamala Kanta Roul

The modern state is facing challenges from numerous non-state actors, ultimately leading to the erosion of state sovereignty, authority and legitimacy. This argument has been proved appropriate in the context of the Pakistani state, which is fighting a crucial battle against fundamentalist Taliban and other sectarian and extremist groups. The forces of Talibanisation are defying the Pakistani Constitution and imposing Islamic law in various parts of the country. Violence breeds more violence; this is clearly visible in Pakistan where extremist group infighting is causing significant loss of life. Pakistan’s economy is in tatters. The position of women is deteriorating day by day to the point where even little girls are flogged, asked to wear Burka and observe traditional rituals. What does all this indicate for the Pakistani state? Will the state of Pakistan buckle under the pressure of non-state actors?

The central questions for this article are whether the Talibanisation of the Swat valley was a consequence of political failure on the part of the Pakistani government, whether religious extremism and terrorist militia in Pakistan are the manifestations of state failure to address structural issues of poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and religious identity, and whether this might ultimately lead to the collapse of the Pakistani state. The article seeks to address all these issues in the emerging context of chaos and anarchy in Pakistan.